Senate District 16 Vote, A Few More Thoughts

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            In my previous post, California Senate District 16 Vote, I raised questions about the Vote by Mail count. In this post I will examine the overall Kern County voter profile for this election. By profile, I mean the results of legislator elections that included Kern County voters.

            Let’s begin by noting that the data is based on the District Races page. We’ll look at votes for the State Assembly and the State Senate. It’s important to note that portions of Kern County lie in three Assembly Districts, District 32District 34District 35, and in two Senate Districts District 12District 16. In addition, the county lies in three Congressional Districts, District 20District 22District 23.

            Assembly Districts

            The following table provides a summary of the elections in the three Assembly Districts.

Assembly
District 32DistrictKernTulareTotal
Precincts522383139522
Vince Fong (R)1293239627033053129323
District 34DistrictKernLos AngelesSan BernardinoTotal
Precincts12424116810331242
Tom Lackey (R)638405800256243241663840
Thurston “Smitty” Smith (R)491832619108883567649183
Total Votes11302384193651268092113023
District 35DistrictKern
Precincts338338
Jasmeet Bains (D)3599735997
Leticia (D)2370723707
Total Votes5970459704

            In District 32, there are 522 precincts in the district. Kern County’s contribution is 383 precincts and Tulare County provided 383 precincts. The “Total” column at the end reflects the Excel calculation to verify the input for both counties. As is evident, the Republican candidate ran unopposed; there was no Democrat to challenge Vincent Fong. And of the 522 precincts, 383 were in Kern County. Since there are 762 precincts in Kern county, this represents about half the county. We’ll consider this point later.

            District 34 did have two candidates, both Republican. But only 41 of the 1242 precincts were in Kern County. As a result, the dominance of the Republicans in this district offers little insight on the county.

            However, District 35 does provide some meaningful information. The fact that the entire district lies in Kern County and the absence of a Republican challenger might provide some insight on the 3000 vote reversal from David Shepard to a Melissa Hurtado. This offers evidence that a precinct level analysis would be valuable (as I stated in my previous post). Since we don’t know how many of these precincts lie in Senate District 16, detailed precinct data is necessary.

            Senate Districts

            Again, a summary table is helpful.

Senate
District 12DistrictKernFresnoTulareTotal
Precincts748445144159748
Susanne Gundy (D)8946934505407541421089469
Shannon Grove (R)196014899027419131921196014
Total Votes28548312440711494546131285483
District 16KernFresnoKingsTulareTotal
Precincts6183171982200618
Melissa Hurtado (D)68457359921358107862032168457
David Shepard (R)68437260253438159172305768437
Total Votes1368946201747962670343378136894

District 12 provides a significant statement about the Republican presence in Kern County. If we look at a ratio of Republican votes to Democrat votes in this county, Shannon Grove received about 2.6 votes to every one of Susanne Gundy’s votes. This clearly indicates a strong Republican presence based on the fact that 445 of the 762 Kern Count precincts lie in this Senate District. In fact, Kern County represents almost 60% of Senate District 12. If we look at Republican to Democrat vote ratios for each county, we see Kern at 2.6, Fresno at 1.8, and Tulare at 2.25. Again, this says a lot about the location of precincts in the counties.

            Finally we get to District 16.  Of the four counties, Kern represents about 51% of the district. The ratio of Republican to Democrat votes in Kern is 0.72 while the ratios of the other counties are 2.5 (Fresno), 1.5 (Kings), and 1.1 (Tulare). The obvious question is: How many Assembly District 35 precincts lie in Senate District 16? There are only 317 precincts in Senate District 16, so if all of them are part of Assembly District 35, that is a strong Democrat presence, but it also represents a strong Republican presence since David Shepard received 26025 votes. But since there is no Republican challenger in Assembly District 35, only a portion of the 317 precincts can lie in this Senate district. How many? The precinct analysis must be done.

            3000 Votes

            A precinct level analysis is imperative. The voters need to know how a 3000 vote lead disappeared in about a week and a half to two weeks. At this point it appears that the Republican Party will have to file legal action instead of a challenge. The Democrat-controlled state Senate had a swearing-in ceremony on Saturday, December 12, 2022. How did they justify that? The state will not certify the election results until Friday, December 16, 2022 (as I type this it is 1600hrs on Tuesday, December 13, 2022) Every page on the election results site (Statewide Contests | 2022 General Election | California Secretary of State) says

Unofficial Election Results
Results will be certified by December 16

            At this point, that’s all I’ve got. I’ll continue to analyze the data and post results as I get them.

            As always, “Good night and good luck.” (Edward R. Murrow)

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